Thirty-seven years ago, I was twenty years old, and I got stuck on a question I have never been able to put down: How do you decide well, when you cannot know?
That question took me places I never planned to go. Into mathematics — to Cantor, who proved that some infinities are so large they cannot even be listed, and who then, with his own hand, drew the boundary of his own method. Into philosophy and theology — three thousand years of disciplined thinking about the unknowable, from the via negativa to Pascal’s wager to Kierkegaard’s leap. Into probability, options theory, chaos, and the science of calibrated judgment — ten Nobel Prizes’ worth of methods for acting where data ends.
And — best of all — into reality. Thirteen years ago we founded Innovation360 to put this thinking to work. Since then we have documented the why and the how in peer-reviewed science, built the world’s largest database on business innovation, and I have published books on innovation leadership, capabilities, and structures — the WSJ and USA Today bestseller lists were a surprise I still smile about. Startups launched, companies turned around, client work in more than sixty countries. This is not theory to me. I have watched it work in real boardrooms, on real portfolios, with real money on the table.
But one thing I had never published: the deep theory underneath it all — how you actually explore the unknown. The methods have been out there for years, working. Their foundations stayed in my notebooks.
This summer, I changed that.
The course I am most proud of
Over one hundred hours of writing and recording later, here it is: Mastering Uncertainty — Think like a Nobel Prize winner.
I will be honest: it is heavyweight material — the philosophy, the mathematics, and the method, finally in one place, start to finish, and made usable. And I built it for everyone, not just executives, because for the first time in my lifetime uncertainty is everybody’s weather. AI is rewriting professions in real time. Quantum computing is moving from lab to roadmap. The climate is repricing where we live and what we build. War has redrawn supply chains in months. Nobody stands outside the fan of futures — the student choosing what to learn, the professional mid-career, the founder, the parent, the retiree watching the markets.
A taste of what is inside:
The turkey. Fed every morning for a thousand days, statistical confidence at an all-time high on the day before Thanksgiving. Then you look at any stable trend in your own life — a salary, a market, a habit — and never read a trend line the same way again.
One complete experiment with real numbers. A hundred visitors, six sign-ups — good news or luck? In a weak world, that result happens about once in every two thousand tries. In a strong one, it is an ordinary Tuesday. That gap is evidence — and once you can read it, nobody can hand you a fairy-tale forecast again.
Feynman’s glass of ice water. Thirty seconds on live television, no slides, and the sentence every steering committee should have on the wall: nature cannot be fooled.
Ellsberg’s two urns, which explain why organizations — and families — pay extra to avoid the unknown. The coastline of Britain, which has no true length. And the insight the whole course is built to install: the shape of a bet beats the size of a forecast, every single time.
It all lands in one question you will start asking about every idea, every milestone, every bold move — at work and at home:
What is your threshold?
Not “what do you predict.” Not “are you sure.” Simply: what evidence, agreed in advance, moves you to act — and what is the most you are willing to lose finding out? That question replaces both the forecast and the fear.
Take it — on me, through August 31
The course is an online micro-credential: three chapters, nine quizzes, a five-template toolkit, and a workbook you run on your own real decisions. USD 199, with a LinkedIn-ready certificate add-on.
And at launch, it is my gift to my readers. Enter this code at signup and the course is free, through August 31, 2026:
Code: I360-UNCERTAINTY
Enroll here → https://app.my360.global/Learning/Course/556a1b99-ad7a-43fe-902b-8b7c6cc6fd84
Thirty-seven years of thinking. One hundred hours of building. One question at the end of it, and I leave it with you: What is your threshold?
